Market Analysis

Top Performing Indices During Covid-19

The S&P 500 reached its pandemic low on 23 March 2020. This page sets out how the major indices and assets performed from that date to early November 2020, with the leading long-only fund and hedge fund shown for comparison.

This page covers:Returns tableWhat led the reboundHow the funds were chosenReading the numbers
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Key finding
Bitcoin was the top performing index from the March 2020 low, returning 129% in US dollars between 23 March and 6 November 2020. Growth equities followed, with the Russell 1000 Growth ETF up 75% and the Nasdaq up 73%. The S&P 500 returned 57% and gold 25%.

Returns from 23 March to 6 November 2020

Index or assetReturn (USD)Notes
Bitcoin129%
Leading long-only fund, assets above US$2bn114%Morgan Stanley Discovery Fund, 1 April to 30 October 2020
Apple112%
Russell 1000 Growth ETF75%
Amazon74%
Nasdaq73%
S&P 50057%
Leading hedge fund, assets above US$2bn52%Cadian Fund, April to September 2020. October data was not available.
Gold25%
RUB/USD4%

Source: AlternativeSoft, HFR, Eurekahedge, Morningstar and public market data. The two fund rows cover slightly different dates from the indices, as shown.

Chart of index returns during Covid-19 from March to November 2020
Index returns during Covid-19, March to November 2020.

What Led the Rebound

  • Growth equities: Large technology companies and growth indices recovered fastest, with Apple and Amazon well ahead of the broad market.
  • Gold: Gold rose 25%, consistent with its behaviour in earlier periods of currency devaluation.
  • Bitcoin: Bitcoin delivered the highest return of any index in the table when measured in US dollars.

Why the Currency Matters

Measured in local currency, the top index over the period was the Caracas IBC equity index in Venezuela, up 492%. Converted to US dollars, the same index returned minus 23%. Any comparison of index performance has to fix the currency first.

How the Funds Were Chosen

To keep the comparison practical for an institution selecting funds, the fund rows are limited to funds with assets above US$2 billion. The search covered funds in US dollars, Swiss francs, sterling, euros and yen, excluding Bitcoin hedge funds. That gave a universe of 887 hedge funds and 6,977 long-only funds, counting separate share classes.

Reading the Numbers Today

  • The window starts at the low: Returns measured from 23 March 2020 capture the recovery and none of the preceding fall.
  • Leaders in a rebound are not permanent leaders: The assets that rose most over these months were also among the most volatile.
  • A table is a starting point: For a decision, return has to be read alongside drawdown, volatility and how an asset fits the rest of the portfolio.

AlternativeSoft lets you rerun this kind of comparison over any period, across 500,000+ funds and indices, with risk statistics next to the returns.

This article is for information and education only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment. Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Based on analysis by Laurent Favre, first published by AlternativeSoft in 2020. The original article also included a market outlook written at that time.

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FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

Measured in US dollars from 23 March to 6 November 2020, Bitcoin was the top performing index in the comparison, with a return of 129%.
From the low on 23 March 2020 to 6 November 2020, the S&P 500 returned 57% and the Nasdaq returned 73% in US dollars.
Gold returned 25% in US dollars between 23 March and 6 November 2020.
Among funds with assets above US$2 billion, the leading long-only fund was the Morgan Stanley Discovery Fund, up 114% from 1 April to 30 October 2020, and the leading hedge fund was the Cadian Fund, up 52% from April to September 2020.
An index can rise sharply in a weakening local currency and still lose value in US dollars. Over this period the Caracas IBC index rose 492% in local currency and fell 23% in US dollars.
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